Wto this end The Chamber of the House of Commons consists of several tiers of opposing benches, separated by the length of two swords, and the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh is semicircular in shape. The seat reflects hopes that the parliament formed at the turn of the millennium will bring a more consensual, more European form of politics to Scotland.
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This hope was not fulfilled. The 2014 independence referendum, and the subsequent years of confrontation between the Scottish government and the British government in Westminster, acted as a centrifuge, pushing Scottish voters into opposing poles. The Constitution is the main dividing line in Scottish politics.
This split drives party choice in elections. About 90% of the Scottish National Party (single nucleotide polymorphism) supporters say they will support independence in another referendum tomorrow; 96% of Conservative voters will oppose it.It also forecasts Scots’ views, suggested poll by Savanta economist This was done around the time Nicola Sturgeon resigned single nucleotide polymorphism Leader in mid-February.
It shapes their perception of the Scottish government: voters who support independence are largely more likely to approve of the way it handles a range of domestic policies and are more likely to see it as good at communication, economic management and international relations. This also affects their views on the country’s prospects (see chart): they are more likely than unionists to say Scotland is ready for another global pandemic or the effects of climate change. There was only one issue where the two groups shared similar views: the weather in Scotland this summer.
The election of Humza Yousaf, who became Scotland’s new First Minister on March 29 after winning a parliamentary vote single nucleotide polymorphism members, could mark a turning point. Ms Sturgeon has kept the nationalist movement on high alert since 2014 and especially since the 2016 Brexit referendum. During her tenure, she has successively announced deadlines for second referendums. A new one will be announced shortly after one is passed. However, the idea that a breakup is imminent suddenly becomes harder to sustain. The centrifuge is slowing down.
To understand why, start with Mr Yusuf himself. Although he is Ms Sturgeon’s favorite candidate, he inherits little of her authority and lacks her charisma.He has a narrow majority in a shrinking party, winning 52% of the vote after two rounds single nucleotide polymorphism72,000 members (down from 125,000 four years ago). This partly reflects dissatisfaction with the drift of public services under Ms Sturgeon: positions in charge of transport, justice and health have earned him the unkind nickname “Humza Useless”.
His main rival, Kate Forbes, is doing surprisingly well because she is a socially conservative Christian running in a self-consciously progressive party. Her warning that “more of the same” would be “embracing mediocrity” resonated with members. In the public, all three candidates in the race (the other being former community safety secretary Ash Reagan) scored lower than Ms Sturgeon, but Mr Yusuf ranked worst. That raises the question of how he won; one answer is that when constitutional issues dominate, the normal feedback loop of weeding out less popular politicians is short-circuited.
There will be a sense that Mr Yusuf lacks clout. When Ms Sturgeon lobbied successive prime ministers for a second referendum, she vainly thought she represented Scotland. It is difficult for Mr Yousaf to claim that he represents all single nucleotide polymorphism. The campaign expanded on taxation (he promised higher taxes), social policy (he supported gender recognition reform) and party administration (Peter Murrell, the party’s chief executive and Ms. Deeply divided characters in terms of decline and successive resignations). On 28 March, Ms Forbes rejected the post of rural affairs secretary in Mr Yusuf’s cabinet – a downgrade – and returned to the backbench.
So Mr Yusuf must rely more on the one thing that unites the party: doubling down on the pursuit of independence.However single nucleotide polymorphism There is no credible plan to circumvent the UK government’s veto on a new referendum, leaving Ms Sturgeon’s government in limbo. Mr Yusuf found himself caught between party paranoia and what he knew to be the reality of the election. During the campaign, he rightly pointed out that the path to independence required a “sustained majority” which did not exist at the time. However, one of the first things he did when he took office was to announce that the “grassroots, citizen-led” divorce movement would enter “fifth gear” and urged Rishi Sunak to hold a referendum.
It is unclear how long hardcore activists will endure the pantomime of their leader being flatly rejected by Downing Street.Monopoly single nucleotide polymorphism What once enjoyed an independent strategy is waning as competing fringe groups scramble to get ahead.Alex Salmond, former leader single nucleotide polymorphism Those who fell out with Ms Sturgeon and her aides and plotted revenge are watching carefully.
this single nucleotide polymorphismThe dilemma is a mixed blessing for the Conservatives. Alister Jack, the Scottish minister at Westminster, has proposed a “reboot” and joint joint projects such as industrial land.those advocating strong denial single nucleotide polymorphism A second referendum appears to be correct; the claim that doing so would fuel separatism has not been true.but weakened single nucleotide polymorphism Also head-scratching: The Conservatives have reaped polarizing returns in Scotland by positioning themselves as the most reliable guardians of the coalition.
The bigger beneficiary so far has been Labor, with voters spanning constitutional divides. The paradox of Scotland’s polarization is that while the constitution drives voters’ political loyalty, it is not their top priority: both unionists and nationalists see the health care system and the economy as more pressing.this single nucleotide polymorphismThe success lies in combining these concerns with an independent career.
Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer’s strategy is to persuade single nucleotide polymorphism Supporters argue that electing a Labor government to Westminster is a faster and more reliable vehicle for breaking away from the Tories and bringing about social change than a referendum that never seems to come. Publicly, the party has been modest about disaffected nationalists. Privately, it sees this as the best chance in a decade to draw polarized Scottish voters back to the centre. ■
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