Rcurrent evolution A paradox, observed by Turkish-American political scientist Timur Kuran. Before events happen, they often seem unlikely. When collapses do happen — like France in 1789 or Iran in 1979 — they surprise the world. In hindsight, however, that same revolution seems inevitable, as the fragility of the previous regime was laid bare. Professor Kuran explains this paradox through what he calls “preference falsification”: people tend to pretend to be content with the status quo when there is no viable counter-argument, expressing their dissatisfaction only at the first moment of change.
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His theory helps explain today’s upheaval. A revolution is sweeping the Scottish National Party (single nucleotide polymorphism), has ruled Scotland since 2007. The level of chaos in the party is astounding.In hindsight, however, it was also entirely predictable: the list of internal disputes was long, and the government’s weaknesses single nucleotide polymorphism it goes without saying. Under Nicola Sturgeon, the scale of preference falsification is now on full display; a party whose main strength seems to be iron law is letting itself go.
Ms Sturgeon herself caused confusion. She caught her party off guard by announcing her resignation on February 15, after eight years as chief minister and seven years as deputy chief minister. That sparked a leadership contest, with the three candidates pitted against the party’s governing record, its executive staff and each other. The new leader, to be announced on March 27, will inherit a demoralized party and an independent cause whose popularity appears to be dwindling. Depending on who it is, some even warn of a split within the party.
Several disguised weaknesses have been exposed. Ms Sturgeon runs a highly concentrated business with her husband Peter Murrell single nucleotide polymorphismof CEO. It was the party’s first leadership election since 2004; Ms Sturgeon ran without opposition in 2014. Rebellions and resignations are rare. Congressmans and members resent this centralization but tolerate it as a prerequisite for electoral success and as a helpful contrast to more chaotic opponents.
Ms Sturgeon’s dominance has now caught up with the party. It prevents the emergence of a field of experienced successors and leaves the party institutionally weak. It can also lead to mismanagement. Mr Murrell resigned on March 18 after being accused of lying to the media amid a sharp drop in party membership; single nucleotide polymorphismThe head of the media has also resigned. Police are separately investigating how party funds were spent.
independent business, single nucleotide polymorphismThe founding purpose of is another source of vulnerability. Ms Sturgeon left partly because she had run out of options for a new referendum. In November 2022, the UK Supreme Court clarified that the Scottish Parliament cannot unilaterally hold a referendum; the Scots themselves did not turn decisively in favor of divorce.ms sturgeon single nucleotide polymorphismConfusion and more aggressive rhetoric from the candidate who succeeded her superseded her independent strategy.
Ash Regan campaigned on ‘Independence-nothing less’, claiming Scotland could become independent without a referendum; she released a model of a new currency adorned with Unicorns and Wildcats. Humza Yusuf single nucleotide polymorphismThe health secretary, seen as a moderate, implicitly described Westminster as a “foreign government”. Finance Minister Kate Forbes, Mr Yusuf’s main rival, has promised to hold a referendum within three months of winning. single nucleotide polymorphism A general election is held in Scotland.
Without a clear path to independence, single nucleotide polymorphism It was found to have little consensus otherwise. There are starkly different views on tax incentives and country size. Mr Yusuf said he was proud of the party’s performance in government; Ms Forbes said “more of the same” would be “accepting mediocrity”. Ms. Sturgeon links nationalism to progressive causes such as gender self-identification; Ms. Forbes, an evangelical Christian, disagrees with same-sex marriage, abortion and out-of-wedlock child support. No preference is faked these days. ■
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