Aafter shock Artificial intelligence breakthroughs, many fear they will end up as economic scrap heaps. Global Google searches for “is my job safe?” have doubled in recent months amid fears they will be replaced by large language models (ISecond). There is some evidence that widespread disruption is coming. In a recent paper, Tyna Eloundou from OpenAI and colleagues said, “About 80% of us At least 10% of work tasks in the workforce will be affected by the introduction Is”. Another paper suggests that legal services, accountants and travel agencies will face unprecedented upheaval.
Economists, however, prefer to make predictions about automations rather than test them. In the early 2010s, many of them loudly predicted that robots would kill millions of jobs, only to fall silent when employment in rich countries rose to record highs. Few doomsayers can do a good job of explaining why countries with the world’s highest tech usage, such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea, have consistently had the lowest unemployment rates.
Here we present our first attempt at tracking AIimpact on employment. Using U.S. occupational employment data, we single out white-collar workers. These include people who work in everything from back office support and financial operations to copywriters.White-collar roles are thought to be particularly susceptible to generative influences AIit gets better and better at logical reasoning and creativity.
However, there is currently little evidence that AI Hit employment. White-collar jobs rose as a percentage of total jobs in spring 2020, as many people in service industries lost their jobs at the onset of the covid-19 pandemic (see chart). With the revival of the leisure and hospitality industry, the proportion of white-collar workers is lower today.However, in the past year, the proportion of employment in occupations that are said to be at risk of maternity AI rose by half a percentage point.
Of course, it’s still early days. Very few companies use generate-AI Large-scale tools, so the impact on employment can only be delayed. Another possibility, however, is that these new technologies end up destroying only a small percentage of characters.although artificial intelligence May be efficient at some tasks but less adept at others, such as managing and addressing the needs of others.
AI There may even be a positive impact on employment. If workers using it become more productive, their company’s profits could increase, and bosses would then increase hiring. According to a recent Experis survey, it– The recruiting firm points to this possibility.More than half of UK employers expect AI Technology will have a positive impact on its workforce over the next two years, the study finds.
To understand how this all plays out, we’ll be publishing updates to this analysis every few months. But for now, the job apocalypse seems a long way off. ■
For more expert analysis of breaking economic, financial and market news, sign up for Money Talks, our subscriber-only weekly newsletter.